NetherlandsOlanda
EredivisieEredivisie
Etapa 23

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Pronostic și Sfaturi de Pariuri

Excelsior

Excelsior

15º26 puncte
14 feb. 2026
1-2
Final
AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar

42 puncte
Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Corect
Selecția noastră
Handicap asiatic
H. Oaspeți -0.25
@ 1.40
1 : 2
FT

Sfaturi de pariere

30%
24%
46%
ExcelsiorRemizăAZ Alkmaar
Rezultat
Victorie în deplasare
@ 1.88
46%
Total goluri
Peste 2.5
@ 1.74
54%
Dublă șansă
Acasă/Afara
@ 1.27
37%
Handicap asiatic
H. Oaspeți -0.25
@ 1.40
71%
Primul Timp
Remiză
@ 2.20
40%
HT/FT
Remiză/Oaspete
@ 5.30
18.9%
Scor exact
1:2
@ 7.00
14.3%

Piețe suplimentare

Total corner-uri
Peste 9.5
@ 1.80
51.5%
Goleador oricând
Troy Parrott
47.6%@ 2.10
Jizz Hornkamp
38.2%@ 2.62
Nesto Groen
36.4%@ 2.75
Szymon Wlodarczyk
36.4%@ 2.75
Isak Jensen
33.3%@ 3.00
Mike van Duinen
33.3%@ 3.00
Cotele actualizate la fiecare oră
Ponturile recalculat la fiecare 2 ore
Blocat cu 2 ore înainte de start

Analiză de experți

David Coleman
David Coleman Analist Senior de Fotbal
75% 20+ ani
7 min citit

The Woudestein Atmosphere: A Battle of Resilience and Rising Stakes Stadion Woudestein, nestled within the vibrant heart of Rotterdam, is more than just a pitch—it's a crucible where aspirations and frustrations collide under the Dutch winter sky. On...

Citește analiza completă

Fapte ale Meciului

Excelsior
Excelsior au pierdut ultimele 5 meciuri din campionat
Excelsior au pierdut 7 din 13 meciuri de acasă (54%)
Excelsior marchează 35% din goluri după minutul 75 (9 goluri)
Excelsior au primit 3 cartonașe roșii în 25 meciuri în acest sezon
Excelsior marchează 23% din goluri în primele 15 minute (6 goluri)
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar au marcat toate cele 4 penalty-uri în acest sezon
T. Parrott a fost implicat în 12 goluri (11G + 1A)

Statistici Cheie

Excelsior4
7Remize
9AZ Alkmaar
3.4Medie Goluri
70%Ambele Echipe Marchează
65%Peste 2.5
14 feb. 2026Excelsior1-2AZ Alkmaar
21 ian. 2026AZ Alkmaar1-1Excelsior
10 mar. 2024AZ Alkmaar4-0Excelsior
4 nov. 2023Excelsior1-1AZ Alkmaar
10 feb. 2023AZ Alkmaar5-0Excelsior
Vezi toate întâlnirile

Cote

Casa de pariuri1X2
10Bet2.303.551.55
188Bet3.153.802.14
1xBet3.253.702.15

Analiză completă

David Coleman
David Coleman
Analist Senior de Fotbal
75% Acuratețe
20+ Ani de experiență
5.5k Ponturi

The Woudestein Atmosphere: A Battle of Resilience and Rising Stakes

Stadion Woudestein, nestled within the vibrant heart of Rotterdam, is more than just a pitch—it's a crucible where aspirations and frustrations collide under the Dutch winter sky. On a crisp Saturday afternoon, the scent of freshly baked stroopwafels mingles with the anticipation of a pivotal Eredivisie clash. Excelsior, fighting for consistency on their home turf, look to harness the energy of their loyal supporters, while AZ Alkmaar, eager to solidify their mid-table standing, aim to carve out a crucial victory in hostile territory. This setting isn’t just about points; it’s about pride, momentum, and the relentless pursuit of Eredivisie survival and advancement.

Setting the Scene: Context and Significance in the Eredivisie Race

The league landscape is tightening; every match carries weight, but this fixture takes on a particular significance for both sides. Excelsior, sitting comfortably at 10th with 26 points, are keen to bolster their home record and push further away from the relegation zone. Their recent form has shown resilience—three wins in their last five, including a combine of gritty performances that have kept their momentum alive. Conversely, AZ Alkmaar arrives with 33 points, just outside the top six, and a desire to capitalize on their scoring prowess and defensive solidity to climb higher. With recent head-to-head encounters displaying parity, this game offers the potential for either side to tilt the balance in their favor, making it more than just another league fixture—it's a statement of intent.

Recent Momentum and Tactical Chess

Examining their latest performances reveals contrasting stories. Excelsior’s form—WDDDD—marks a remarkable turnaround after a shaky start, demonstrating a combative spirit and tactical discipline. Their attacking output, at an average of 1.3 goals per game, is modest but often efficient, especially when combined with their defensive resilience, conceding 1.4 per match. Their willingness to embrace a 4-2-3-1 formation underscores a balanced approach: a solid backline layered with midfield creativity and a forward line looking to exploit gaps.

Meanwhile, AZ Alkmaar’s recent results—DLWDL—highlight a team caught between offensive ambition and defensive vulnerabilities. Their scoring average of 1.8 goals per game suggests attacking intent, typified by their creative midfield and prolific strikers like T. Parrott. Defensively, they've conceded 1.2 goals on average, a testament to their somewhat inconsistent backline. The 4-2-3-1 setup, similar to Excelsior, provides tactical clarity, but their challenge will be to wrest control and capitalize on chance creation.

Key Players Who Can Shift the Tide

  • Excelsior:
    • N. Naujoks: The top scorer with six goals, Naujoks’s positioning and finishing could be the difference in unlocking a disciplined AZ defense.
    • I. Yegoian: With three goals and two assists, his versatility and link-up play are vital for Excelsior’s attacking rhythm.
    • G. de Regt: Contributing 3 assists, his playmaking from deeper positions might create the decisive opening.
  • AZ Alkmaar:
    • T. Parrott: The Irish striker has bagged 11 goals, making him the most potent threat and focal point of AZ’s offensive moves.
    • S. Mijnans: With five goals and five assists, his dual role as scorer and creator could orchestrate key chances.
    • M. Meerdink: A versatile attacker with three goals, capable of exploiting space and creating chaos for Excelsior’s defense.

Head-to-Head Dynamics: Patterns and Recent Encounters

Looking back over 19 meetings, a clear pattern emerges: AZ holds a slight edge, with 8 wins against Excelsior’s 4. The scoring has often been high, averaging over 3.4 goals per game, underscoring the attacking intent both sides bring to the table. The matches tend to be lively affairs, with a 68% chance of BTTS historically. Recent clashes reveal a balanced rivalry: for instance, a 1-1 draw in January 2026 and a 4-0 victory for AZ in March 2024 showcase the volatility and potential for both sides to score, regardless of the scoreboard.

Betting Landscape: Odds, Probabilities, and Market Value

Bookmakers have set the odds with AZ as clear favorites—home at 2.5, draw at 3.6, and away at 1.44. These translate to implied probabilities of roughly 29%, 20%, and 51%, respectively. The sharp disparity suggests confidence in AZ’s ability to secure points away from home, but the odds also hint at potential value in backing Excelsior or the draw, especially considering recent form and head-to-head trends.

The over/under market favors over 2.5 goals with a 58% implied chance, aligning with the historical high-scoring nature of these fixtures. Both teams scoring is priced at 1.6, reflecting a 60% implied probability, which resonates with their recent scoring records and the tendency for matches between them to see both sides finding the net.

Double chance markets (12) and Asian Handicap lines offer interesting angles—particularly the 12 option at 1.25, indicating a strong but not absolute expectation that either team can win or draw. The Asian Handicap +0.5 for Excelsior at 1.85 might be attractive if one believes home resilience can contain AZ’s attacking quality.

Forecasts in the Shadows of Uncertainty

Given the current form, head-to-head history, and statistical insights, our predictions lean towards a close contest with a moderate likelihood of goals. The confidence in an AZ victory sits at around 49%, driven by their superior overall form and attacking potency, especially from T. Parrott. The over 2.5 goals market, with a 58% confidence level, is supported by both teams’ attacking stats and previous high-scoring encounters.

Both teams to score is favored at 60%, reflecting their recent scoring trends and defensive vulnerabilities. A double chance on the away team (12) is less confident—about 38%—but remains plausible, considering AZ’s historical dominance and current form.

Predicted Outcome and Best Bets: Precision in a Crowded Field

Taking all factors into account, the most balanced wager is betting on AZ to win, given their consistent scoring and recent performances, with a reasonable confidence level of nearly 50%. The over 2.5 goals bet also holds significant merit, aligned with the teams’ offensive stats and head-to-head history.

The BTTS market is compelling—both sides have the firepower and proven scoring records to breach defenses, particularly with Excelsior’s resilience in attack and AZ’s potent front line.

In terms of value, the Asian Handicap +0.5 for Excelsior at 1.85 offers a hedge against the possibility of a narrow AZ win, especially since Excelsior’s recent form suggests they can stay competitive and even secure a point or more.

Conclusion: Navigating the Drama of Rotterdam’s Battle

This encounter isn’t just about points—it's about the narrative of perseverance versus ambition. AZ’s attacking firepower and proven pedigree favor them, but Excelsior’s resilience on their home soil and recent upward trend present a genuine challenge. Expect a tight, lively game with multiple goal-scoring opportunities, where tactical battles unfold in midfield, and individual brilliance can make all the difference. The key to unlocking this fixture lies in who can impose their rhythm early—will AZ’s experience and firepower tip the scales, or can Excelsior’s collective grit disrupt their visitors’ rhythm? Either way, this match promises to add another compelling chapter to their rivalry.

Summary of Best Bets

  • AZ Alkmaar to win: At 1.44, the value supports their chances based on recent form and head-to-head dominance.
  • Over 2.5 Goals: Supported by a 58% confidence level, reflecting both teams’ attacking stats and previous high-scoring matches.
  • Both Teams to Score: Likely, given the 60% trend and their offensive records—especially with Excelsior’s resilience and AZ’s creativity.
  • Asian Handicap +0.5 for Excelsior: At 1.85, offers a safe cushion considering home advantage and recent form.

This clash is set to test both teams' tactical flexibility and mental toughness—a true Eredivisie spectacle where every goal, save, and tactical tweak could be decisive.

Informații suplimentare

ExcelsiorExcelsior

Golgeteri principali

N. Naujoks
N. NaujoksMijlocaș
6Goluri
I. Yegoian
I. YegoianMijlocaș
3Goluri
G. de Regt
G. de RegtMijlocaș
2Goluri
S. Włodarczyk
S. WłodarczykAtacant
2Goluri
A. Zagré
A. ZagréFundaș
2Goluri

Asistențe

G. de Regt
G. de RegtMijlocaș
3Asistențe
I. Yegoian
I. YegoianMijlocaș
2Asistențe
D. Sanches Fernandes
D. Sanches FernandesMijlocaș
2Asistențe
R. Meissen
R. MeissenFundaș
2Asistențe
S. Włodarczyk
S. WłodarczykAtacant
1Asistențe

Cartonașe

A. Zagré
A. ZagréFundaș
40
I. Bronkhorst
I. BronkhorstFundaș
40
G. de Regt
G. de RegtMijlocaș
30
R. Meissen
R. MeissenFundaș
30
A. Carlén
A. CarlénMijlocaș
30
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

Golgeteri principali

T. Parrott
T. ParrottAtacant
11Goluri
S. Mijnans
S. MijnansMijlocaș
5Goluri
M. Meerdink
M. MeerdinkAtacant
3Goluri
M. de Wit
M. de WitFundaș
2Goluri
K. Smit
K. SmitMijlocaș
2Goluri

Asistențe

S. Mijnans
S. MijnansMijlocaș
5Asistențe
M. de Wit
M. de WitFundaș
2Asistențe
K. Smit
K. SmitMijlocaș
2Asistențe
Weslley Patati
Weslley PatatiMijlocaș
2Asistențe
I. Jensen
I. JensenAtacant
2Asistențe

Cartonașe

W. Goes
W. GoesFundaș
80
M. de Wit
M. de WitFundaș
70
K. Smit
K. SmitMijlocaș
40
Alexandre Penetra
Alexandre PenetraFundaș
40
P. Koopmeiners
P. KoopmeinersMijlocaș
40

Formă Detaliată & Meciuri Recente

Excelsior
DDDDD
10Jucat
1Victories
4Remize
5Înfrângeri
Puncte/Meci0.7
Proc. de Victorie %10%
Goluri/Meci2.5
Medie Goluri1.1
Medie Concediate1.4
Ambele Echipe Marchează70%
Fără goluri primite20%
Nu a marcat20%

Meciuri Recente

15 mar.Dla Feyenoord1-2
7 mar.Dvs Heerenveen1-2
1 mar.Dvs GO Ahead Eagles0-1
20 feb.Dla Fortuna Sittard1-2
14 feb.Dvs AZ Alkmaar1-2
AZ Alkmaar
VVDVD
10Jucat
6Victories
1Remize
3Înfrângeri
Puncte/Meci1.9
Proc. de Victorie %60%
Goluri/Meci2.9
Medie Goluri1.9
Medie Concediate1
Ambele Echipe Marchează60%
Fără goluri primite20%
Nu a marcat20%

Meciuri Recente

15 mar.Vvs Heracles Almelo4-0
12 mar.Vvs Sparta Praga2-1
7 mar.Dla PSV Eindhoven1-2
4 mar.Vvs Telstar2-1
1 mar.Dla Utrecht0-2

Istoricul Întâlnirilor

Statistici de Pariuri

MetricăValoare
Total Meciuri20
Medie Goluri3.4
Ambele Echipe Marchează70%
Peste 2.5 Goluri65%
Peste 1.5 Goluri95%

Goluri pe Echipa

EchipaTotalMedie
Excelsior261.3 pe meci
AZ Alkmaar422.1 pe meci

Fără goluri primite

EchipaFără goluri primite
Excelsior2 (10%)
AZ Alkmaar5 (25%)
14 feb. 2026EredivisieExcelsior1-2AZ Alkmaar
21 ian. 2026EredivisieAZ Alkmaar1-1Excelsior
10 mar. 2024EredivisieAZ Alkmaar4-0Excelsior
4 nov. 2023EredivisieExcelsior1-1AZ Alkmaar
10 feb. 2023EredivisieAZ Alkmaar5-0Excelsior
11 ian. 2023Cupa KNVBExcelsior1-4AZ Alkmaar
23 oct. 2022EredivisieExcelsior2-1AZ Alkmaar
15 mai 2019EredivisieExcelsior4-2AZ Alkmaar
15 dec. 2018EredivisieAZ Alkmaar2-1Excelsior
3 mar. 2018EredivisieExcelsior1-2AZ Alkmaar
24 sept. 2017EredivisieAZ Alkmaar0-2Excelsior
5 mar. 2017EredivisieAZ Alkmaar1-1Excelsior
3 dec. 2016EredivisieExcelsior3-3AZ Alkmaar
6 mar. 2016EredivisieAZ Alkmaar2-0Excelsior
15 aug. 2015EredivisieExcelsior2-2AZ Alkmaar
17 mai 2015EredivisieExcelsior1-4AZ Alkmaar
2 nov. 2014EredivisieAZ Alkmaar3-3Excelsior
11 feb. 2012EredivisieAZ Alkmaar2-0Excelsior
7 dec. 2011EredivisieExcelsior0-0AZ Alkmaar
5 feb. 2011EredivisieExcelsior2-1AZ Alkmaar